Media selection is highly predictable, in principle

Abstract

Media research is, in part, interested in accurately explaining and predicting people’s media selection. Explanation is an accurate description of the causal mechanisms that govern media selection whereas prediction is focused on making accurate inferences about unobserved data. However, meta-analyses demonstrate that existing media selection theories and models have limited explanatory accuracy. The predictive accuracy of these theories and models is unknown. Our project bridges this gap by empirically specifying how predictable, in principle, media selection is. To achieve this ambition, we articulate key conceptual distinctions between explanation and prediction. Subsequently, we report three empirical studies that examine prediction accuracy as a function of model complexity and estimate the theoretical maximum predictability of people’s music-listening and web-browsing behaviors. Approximately 80% of music selection and 60% of web-browsing behaviors are predictable. Moreover, a simple Markov Chain model that uses information about people’s prior media selection can achieve about 20% prediction accuracy for music selection and 10% accuracy in predicting web-browsing. By estimating the maximum predictability of people’s media selection behavior, we gain a first-ever benchmark by which media selection theories and models can be compared. More broadly, we show how simple models that account for the sequential dependency in media selection lend new insights and suggest novel directions for future theory development.